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Posts Tagged "Brexit"


Posted On 07  Aug  2017  

A word on UK Real Estate

On most measures UK property is expensive. It is most expensive in the South East and in London in particular. Yields in London vary between 2% in the expensive parts to perhaps 4.5% on the outskirts. More risky properties in the Midlands and North can yield 6-7%, but most of those assets require upgrading. There is also a shortage of stock. Foreign buyers and big players domestically are moping up anything decent that comes to market. Institutional investors have moved into prime property because yields on Government and corporate bonds are so low. If these institutional investors are right, then inflation should remain low for very long time. Signs that inflation will remain low is indicated by the fact that UK rates are not going up anytime soon. Sterling has weakened considerably since Brexit, but inflation remains subdued. The BoE forecasts that the UK economy will slow down a little


Posted On 11  Jun  2016  

The mispricing of risk by analysts and markets

Britain’s referendum on EU memberships has negative implications for GBP, EUR, British economy and the European economy. What is bad for Europe is not good for the global economy. In the event that Britain votes to leave the EU, it is expected that Sterling will sell off significantly against the USD and less significantly against the Euro. No one has a crystal ball and analysts are all over the place on the extent of the sell-off. Some think that on the downside perhaps a 10% reduction in value should suffice. Others think that GBP could fall to 1.15 to the dollar. Analysts hedge their bets by making longer term predictions when we are not asking them to do so. We want to know what will happen a day or two before the vote and critically on the day and a couple of days after. The answers are really quite complex.


Posted On 28  May  2016  

Brexit Vote – Why Great Britain will vote ‘Yes’ and stay in Europe

28/05/2016 Most political leaders, dare I say it, ‘most leaders’ are driven not by the love for their country and its people but by gains in personal power. Their long held beliefs, when on the rare occasion they have them, are compromised on their journey to grab power. We observe that there are very few principled politicians. George W Bush, Tony Blair, Nicolas Sarkozy, Silvio Berlusconi, and now Donald Trump are all examples of self-absorbed leaders for whom the self is far more important than the collective. The previous leaders of Greece, who syphoned public money into their own pockets, didn’t care about the Greek people. Argentina has similarly played a repeated game of roulette with its own citizens. In Britain Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, and members of the cabinet who are support the Brexit campaign don’t care about Britain. They care only about their narrow vision of a Britain