Posted On 27 Dec 2016
27/12/2016 In 2016 we got many things right. China didn’t collapse. Brazil rallied hugely. The US Dollar went up. Bonds sold off. Emerging Market currencies sold off, except for the Russian Ruble. We were on the wrong side of Brexit, but still managed to take advantage of a falling GBP. We hoped that Trump wouldn’t win the US elections as that would change many dynamics. But he did win and some changes will happen and on many others even his administration will be constrained. These are our thoughts on what 2017 may have in store for us: USD We are probably more than ¾ of the way in the US Dollar rally. Infrastructure spending under Trump will push up US rates and US Inflation more significantly compared with European Rates and European Inflation. But the weaker EUR, GBP, JPY and weaker EM currencies will feed inflation all over the world.
Posted On 28 May 2016
28/05/2016 Most political leaders, dare I say it, ‘most leaders’ are driven not by the love for their country and its people but by gains in personal power. Their long held beliefs, when on the rare occasion they have them, are compromised on their journey to grab power. We observe that there are very few principled politicians. George W Bush, Tony Blair, Nicolas Sarkozy, Silvio Berlusconi, and now Donald Trump are all examples of self-absorbed leaders for whom the self is far more important than the collective. The previous leaders of Greece, who syphoned public money into their own pockets, didn’t care about the Greek people. Argentina has similarly played a repeated game of roulette with its own citizens. In Britain Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, and members of the cabinet who are support the Brexit campaign don’t care about Britain. They care only about their narrow vision of a Britain